A coin flip is an excellent analogy for Value Bet. There is a 50/50 possibility of your coin falling on heads or tails unless there is an issue with the coin’s weighing. A coin toss bet with a buddy would have odds of evens (2.00) for a heads-up and odds of even (2.00) for a tails-up.
Nevertheless, we’ll give you 11/10 (2.10) odds if the coin comes up tails. It’s more likely to happen since the odds (11/10) are more significant than the indicated likelihood (50 per cent chance).
If you lose that coin, there is still a 50% probability of losing the first ten coin tosses. A slight advantage may snowball into big winnings over a long period, as more and more coins are tossed, and heads or tails fall more often.
Value Bet On Sport
Now let’s see how this relates to the world of sports wagering. As you may be aware, the odds on a game change often. Somebody knowledgeable about sports betting may have placed a very high wager on the game’s outcome; it might also be because of an injury to a key player. In 2016, a cup game between Chelsea and Manchester City was one of the better instances.
At Norsk Tipping, a Norwegian bookmaker, the odds of Chelsea winning were 1.77 two hours before kick-off. Manchester City elected to rest several of their best players one hour before kickoff and instead field a youthful lineup that included five adolescents to many people’s dismay. The betting market reacted by lowering Chelsea’s odds from 1.77 to 1.40. It took almost 20 minutes for Norsk Tipping to cut their odds from 1.50 to 1.40.
It was around this period that you might have placed a “value bet” on Chelsea to win at substantially higher odds than their implied likelihood of victory indicated.
Manchester City still has a chance to win the game, just as in the coin toss scenario. Probabilities imply, however, that if you keep making value bets over and over again, you’ll end up making a fortune.
What Is The Best Way To Locate And Put A Bet On Your Value?
You may do this in a few different ways. Value Bet software utilizes an algorithm to monitor the odds of a sports event, alerting you when the bookmakers make errors and allowing you to take advantage of this information. If a bookmaker fails to make the appropriate price change in the Chelsea versus Manchester City example, they will alert you.
To pick a good value bet, you might find one independently. For example, Liverpool has scored three or more goals 20 times in their last 30 games. Even if they have scored three or more goals in 66 per cent of their past 30 games, you could discover a bookmaker providing odds of evens, which suggests a 50 per cent likelihood for their upcoming match when looking at the odds.
The odds should be reduced in this situation, allowing you to make a value wager. Odds may be set at events for additional reasons, such as the absence of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah or the presence of a solid defensive club.
Tips of value bet:
The bookmakers are attempting to calculate the probability of any sporting event result. However, in most circumstances, these probabilities are little more than general guidelines and arbitrary judgments.
The key to value betting is determining the genuine likelihood of a particular result. It’s called a “sharp line” or “sharp odds” in sports wagering.
This is an excellent example of a long-term winning value bet. Even though I suffered many losses, finding undervalued wagers would always lead to winnings. There are two main ways for the ordinary bookmaker to boost their earnings:
- Accurate odds with a reasonable profit margin (2 and 3%).
- Boosting business margins by decreasing risk (6-8 per cent)
- Most bookmakers lack the experience and expertise to provide sharp odds with modest profit margins, which would be ideal.
- These arbitrage bettors can enable Asian bookmakers and Pinnacle Sports to calculate the actual likelihood of an event using algorithms.
- They may provide better odds because they are confident in the accuracy of their wagering lines, which allows them to do so.
Concluding
The variance is the most significant problem and why so many individuals have stopped placing Value Bet. If you don’t cover every possible result, you won’t produce assured profits every day (or trading). When it comes to value betting, it’s common to have lengthy winning streaks and long losing streaks. However, if you put value bets, you will make money in the long term.
